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  #31  
Old April 1st, 2018, 09:24 AM
Jerome Marot Jerome Marot is offline
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It’s not just that they know our private lives but, in the end they also know far more of our character traits than we do ourselves. This could become a recognized metric in getting employment or entering a college of one’s choice! If they aggregate data, they can deduce when we are first interested in something and when it develops into a habit or necessity and results in a purchase!
So it is said: Facebook, with its huge data about their users (and non-users) knows more about ourselves than we do.

But there is a problem with that. Facebook is about profit: they live because their users buy the more expensive advertised products, spend fortunes on online games, etc... running huge debts if needs be. Yet, some people are more resistant to that manipulation than others. Some people never clic on advertisements. Some people do not buy high-margin products and look for the unadvertised alternative. Some people stop spending before they go into debt.

Presumably, Facebook (and google) can tell these people apart. It is their stated objective.

How long will it be before they decide that these users are not bringing in the profits they want and end the show for them? They will not necessarily exclude them, but they could make them pay or find ways to lower the level of service. How long do you think it will take?

Coming back to photography, we see interesting developments. It used to be that Adobe's customers were divided into two groups: the higher spenders who bought every upgrade and the lower spenders who bought every second upgrade. You know how it ended: today Adobe's product are to be paid by the month. For cameras: it used to be that one bought a camera and that was it. Gopro has introduced a new concept: you need to log-in to their web site to use the app for their cameras. You're not yet forced to subscribe to their cloud service, but how long will that take?

How much revenue growth does the average investor demand nowadays? One can only get that money from growth of user base or, when the market is saturated, by increasing the average revenue per user.
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  #32  
Old April 1st, 2018, 09:42 AM
Asher Kelman Asher Kelman is offline
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Jerome,

What about the index or social metrics that could be sold to universities or used by companies to only allow admissions with certain metrics or else, only give discounts to high spenders. What is to stop such consequences of metrics themselves being recognized and leveraged by everyone like college degrees, Union membership and other self-earned parts of ones curriculum vitae?

Although this is “off topic” it seems to me to be a natural outcome of aggregating information about rachbof us and setting the questions.

Asher
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  #33  
Old April 1st, 2018, 10:33 AM
Jerome Marot Jerome Marot is offline
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Although this is “off topic” it seems to me to be a natural outcome of aggregating information about rachbof us and setting the questions.
Your outcomes are quite possible. Actually, selection seems to be already practiced by some mail order companies who will simply not accept customers who are correlated with a high fraud risk by the kind of relatives they have, their home address and/or ethnicity. That is not really legal, but proofs are hard to come by.

The same happens when asking for a US visa. There is a project to make it compulsory to list social media accounts for visa applicants.

But maybe we should concentrate on photography. With one population of photographers quickly declining (the ones using classical cameras) and another much bigger one having a much higher average user revenue potential (the ones using smartphones as they can also be sold subscriptions for cloud services), what do you think is going to happen?
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  #34  
Old April 1st, 2018, 11:45 AM
Asher Kelman Asher Kelman is offline
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.....But maybe we should concentrate on photography. With one population of photographers quickly declining (the ones using classical cameras) and another much bigger one having a much higher average user revenue potential (the ones using smartphones as they can also be sold subscriptions for cloud services), what do you think is going to happen?
This will not be driven by the photographers with lust for new classic cameras, as these will become like war veterans with wonderful stories to tell each other.

It will, of course be driven by opportunity for commerce. Those interested in taking beautiful
pictures will still mostly only need a smart phone or tablet. Sports stadia will have digital arrays and as part of their income stream will license to a new breed of “Photographers” sitting by computer screens, selecting and framing images from 3D movie feeds. “Photographs” will be extracted and resold. The expertise will now be in gettingvthe most brilliant expositions of the action. Fans will becable to examine in slow motion every brillian move and each and every foul. The Nikon and Canon sports pros on the field will also make their living, but the feed will have to be close to real time to compete with digital camera arrays going to the Internet. Apart from oddities like sports, science and forensics, the market will shrink and the driving force will be to innovate to exploit small intense new markets.

Let’s start with the Camera Companies, that MFR classic cameras. Leica, Zeiss, Ricoh Pentax, Olympus, Panasonic all use their markets for a basket of products, generally including optics for industrial robots and quality control, security, office copiers, microscopes, medical and surgical devices, many of which have portals to attach these regular cameras, which they happen to make.

In all cases, a classic camera of another MFR could be offered, if the photographer’s sustained buying power dwindled due to lack of interest. So there will be further shrinkage of classical camera MFR choice for us, but enough will remain to service a much smaller base, partly propped up by sales to scientists, armed forces, police and FBI.

At the same time, there will appear new cameras that mount multiple phone camera optics and electronic modules, as these are going to be increasingly more like ordinary mass-produced generic computer chips. So many small companies will be inventive and with little investment, leverage these low cost lens-electronic units for a range of consumer and people control products never before imagined.

Store counters and restaurant walls that can read peoples behavior, faces and plates. Stores that can recognize people before they enter the store and know their name and preferences.

Meanwhile photographers will have cameras made from the fruits of the cell phone. New companies will arise selling cameras that can wrap around objects to get a 3 D view and each pixel is a separate camera with intelligent designation for colors, focus or brightness.

Classical DSLRs and mirrorless cameras will be considered basic and used as a badge of devotion to the art of photography, still relying on ideas from mythology of Ansel Adams or significance of bright and dark areas to get a balanced well exposed image, as the ubiquitous multiple lens cameras will have no way of under or over exposing anywhere on the frame.

Camera manufacturers will all seek to copy the trend for offering mass produced high quality electro Optical and computing units. A few might cater to photographers as a prestige item, like the many $300,000,000 vanity anchor stores in Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills that doubtless, don’t make the sales to cover their costs!

But photography will become something romantic and nostalgic, like playing cowboys and Indians with many small companies simply designing the toys for them by just programming and CAD design and a plastic housing!

Asher
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  #35  
Old April 2nd, 2018, 06:13 AM
Jerome Marot Jerome Marot is offline
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I like your analysis of the market. While I agree on most of it, there are a few points I could add.

1: the market for professional photography has changed in the past years. While some people still hire photographers (e.g. for photographying catalogues), stock photography is effectively dead. Even reputable agencies are closing, replaced by sites like unsplash. Unsplash is a site where anyone can download quality highres images FOR FREE to do anything they want without even crediting the photographer who uploaded the work.

2: the market for cameras has changed as well. Cameras and lenses have become more expensive, it seems that facing a reduction in the number of customers, camera companies have sought to preserve revenue by going upmarket. It is a bit like what happened to watches: many people stopped wearing a watch (their smartphone keeps the time), yet watches are still made and sold. The market which survived best are luxury watches. I would expect more cameras by recognised brands like Leica in the future, maybe also more digital medium format cameras like the Hasselblad X1D. Apparently that particular camera sells very well, particularly in the far east.

3: a visit to Photokina 2 years ago showed me that the market of bloggers, instagram and youtube stars and generally speaking web "influencers" is considered very important by the photographic industry. Coming back to Hasselblad, they made a self-professed internet guru their head of strategy for the X1D last year. That is a very puzzling development and I am not very sure what to make of it.

4: the majority of photographs has always been vernacular and that is not changing. 30 years ago, people passed around prints representing themselves in vacations, today they don't make prints but do the same on social networks and on their smartphone screen.

5: probably points 3 and 4 are linked and the smarphone industry dreams of 2 billion users sharing more pictures, while paying for cloud storage. It seems that this is what the menus are designed for.
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  #36  
Old April 2nd, 2018, 07:30 AM
Doug Kerr Doug Kerr is offline
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Asher, Jerome,

Thank you both for your insightful analyses of what is going on in the realm of "photography".

Best regards,

Doug
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  #37  
Old April 2nd, 2018, 07:34 AM
James Lemon James Lemon is offline
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Fujifilm has created businesses in multiple high-tech fields and become a technology-oriented company.
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  #38  
Old April 2nd, 2018, 09:46 AM
Asher Kelman Asher Kelman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerome Marot View Post
I like your analysis of the market. While I agree on most of it, there are a few points I could add.

1: the market for professional photography has changed in the past years. While some people still hire photographers (e.g. for photographying catalogues), stock photography is effectively dead. Even reputable agencies are closing, replaced by sites like unsplash. Unsplash is a site where anyone can download quality highres images FOR FREE to do anything they want without even crediting the photographer who uploaded the work.

Wedding photography will continue as a specialized business as brides and mothers expect a wedding album. I would guess that it is about 60% important as getting an engagement ring in the first place. Even though folk will cohabit, marriages are still thriving and like religion will be here for another millennium or the next extinction event! Albums don’t need to be recharged, although with chemical batteries, a digital picture frame could stay charged for many months andcrecharged by runningvircunder the faucet! Even then, color-printed pages that turn will be intriguing and will survive!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerome Marot View Post
2: the market for cameras has changed as well. Cameras and lenses have become more expensive, it seems that facing a reduction in the number of customers, camera companies have sought to preserve revenue by going upmarket. It is a bit like what happened to watches: many people stopped wearing a watch (their smartphone keeps the time), yet watches are still made and sold. The market which survived best are luxury watches. I would expect more cameras by recognised brands like Leica in the future, maybe also more digital medium format cameras like the Hasselblad X1D. Apparently that particular camera sells very well, particularly in the far east.
Good points! The commoditization of lens optics For industrial quality control, robotics, smart gadgets and so on will feed new approaches to even bespoke MFRS such as Leica, Zeiss, Canon and Nikon as Well as PhSe One. The results will be different as new optical materials and absurd lens and upgrades to current silicon fabrication come into play. Rather than destroy the bespoke photographer’s camera, the massive competitive smart phone camera and intelligent image processing research will generate new industries, each now commoditizing previously unimagined exploitation’s of advances initially introduced for the mobile phone.

So the costs for Phase One or even Fuji (and yes new companies), making further advances in classic cameras, will plummet, as they too will benefit from the cascading commoditization of units of “mix and match” interchangeable comparable and compatable solid state or electro optical or software modules and “plug ins”. So living breathing, walking photographers with smarts will be themselves offering better photographs for less effort. Even photographers arexwarm and part of a lively scene and robots will not replace them for a while!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerome Marot View Post
3: a visit to Photokina 2 years ago showed me that the market of bloggers, instagram and youtube stars and generally speaking web "influencers" is considered very important by the photographic industry. Coming back to Hasselblad, they made a self-professed internet guru their head of strategy for the X1D last year. That is a very puzzling development and I am not very sure what to make of it.
Yes, that is weird as it goes beyond getting them to sit at home and blog for the company. But this is happening with the fashion industry. “Stars-with-followers” have fashion channels and are now important outlets for marketing. Actually hiring the folk to run a division is gob-stopping!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerome Marot View Post
4: the majority of photographs has always been vernacular and that is not changing. 30 years ago, people passed around prints representing themselves in vacations, today they don't make prints but do the same on social networks and on their smartphone screen.

5: probably points 3 and 4 are linked and the smarphone industry dreams of 2 billion users sharing more pictures, while paying for cloud storage. It seems that this is what the menus are designed for.
That, Jerome is where a huge cut of the money is!

........and most of the cloud storage sites actually rely on Amazon for the Space and services they are selling!

At least for now they will make billions a month. Right now about 2.4!

But here’s the surprise, the current companies that depend on Amazon for bottling the “water” they sell will eventually be offered DNA, holographic or Quantum or Rhubarb cubes that will be able to store most of their cloud needs and so put pressure on Amazon, which will have hopefully diversified to its Mars freighter transports!

Asher

P.S. Will return to tackle my numerous typos either that I made or that Siri made for me!
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  #39  
Old April 2nd, 2018, 10:19 AM
Jerome Marot Jerome Marot is offline
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Wedding photography will continue as a specialized business as brides and mothers expect a wedding album.
I beg to differ. Weddings are, de facto, dead in Europe and it seems that the USA is following. They are still a big event amongst the muslim families in Europe, though. They may still be a big event in some other niches.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Asher Kelman View Post
So the costs for Phase One or even Fuji (and yes new companies), making further advances in classic cameras, will plummet
Maybe, but with luxury products, the manufacturing costs are of no importance as they respond to the law of Veblen goods.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Asher Kelman View Post
Yes, that is weird as it goes beyond getting them to sit at home and blog for the company. But this is happening with the fashion industry. “Stars-with-followers” have fashion channels and are now important outlets for marketing. Actually hiring the folk to run a division is gob-stopping!
This "internet star with followers" is somewhat puzzling me. It is a new phenomenon which I do not quite understand. I mean: I understand the underlying principles, know how many followers are necessary for one to monetize an instagram feed or youtube channel, etc... I even realise how some people got famous. But I don't quite understand the appeal, what motivates people who do that.

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Originally Posted by Asher Kelman View Post
and most of the cloud storage sites actually rely on Amazon for the Space and services they are selling!
I did not realise that. Thank you for the hindsight.
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  #40  
Old April 2nd, 2018, 10:41 AM
James Lemon James Lemon is offline
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Just say no to social media.
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  #41  
Old April 2nd, 2018, 10:52 AM
Asher Kelman Asher Kelman is offline
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Jerome,

At least in the USA, marriage is going to last a long time. Even gay folk are actually getting married and want the albums! Yes you can still make a good living here, but one has to hustle as unlike the U.K. We don’t use certifications or proof of education or apprenticeship. So the competition is harsh. But more is expected. One has to be able to deliver an edited video too. So that means a crew to pay!

Other very traditional societies such as India, Turkey or Pakistan have a long way to go before weddings and wedding photography decline! Any liberalization of social mores will be offset by population growth ofvthevmire conservative masses!

Asher
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Last edited by Asher Kelman; April 2nd, 2018 at 05:53 PM.
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  #42  
Old April 2nd, 2018, 03:12 PM
Jerome Marot Jerome Marot is offline
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I meant: people still marry in Europe, but they don't make it an event big enough to justify a professional photographer anymore. Or, actually, less and less people do that. As you noted, marriage photography is for the family and families have become smaller than they used to be.
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  #43  
Old April 2nd, 2018, 05:43 PM
James Lemon James Lemon is offline
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Adobe study reports .about 28% of website traffic showed strong “non-human signals,” leading the company to believe that the traffic came from bots or click farms

Have a look inside a typical click farm.
https://kotaku.com/inside-chinese-cl...rms-1795287821
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  #44  
Old April 3rd, 2018, 10:39 AM
Asher Kelman Asher Kelman is offline
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Well it’s here: the mining of decisions with a “Citizen Score”

....and the folk are not protesting!

Even might use it to choose who to date?

So not only are the folk set up to choose a certain way, then those who do are rewarded and now can get loans and other advantages!

Asher
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  #45  
Old April 3rd, 2018, 11:50 AM
Jerome Marot Jerome Marot is offline
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Well it’s here: the mining of decisions with a “Citizen Score”

....and the folk are not protesting!
Check message #12 in this thread.
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  #46  
Old April 3rd, 2018, 02:08 PM
Asher Kelman Asher Kelman is offline
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Check message #12 in this thread.
So that is where I heard it from first!

Pretty serious news!

Amazing that it is such a potentially efficient system as one controls the media, the questions and the consequences of choice!

Asher
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  #47  
Old April 6th, 2018, 11:22 AM
James Lemon James Lemon is offline
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It would appear that all of the data mining is for AI research. Things like self driving cars may seem appealing to some but the fact is we don't have the infrastructure for it. Our roads are not designed for self driving anything.
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  #48  
Old April 6th, 2018, 02:09 PM
Jerome Marot Jerome Marot is offline
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It would appear that all of the data mining is for AI research.
I am not really sure I understand what you mean here.

On the one hand, training neural network needs huge data sets. Is that what you mean? Neural networks made modern AI possible.

On the other hand, there is no other way to deal with massive data sets than by training a computer to try and make sense out of it. No human can possibly read all of it in a lifetime.
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  #49  
Old April 6th, 2018, 06:37 PM
James Lemon James Lemon is offline
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I am not really sure I understand what you mean here.

On the one hand, training neural network needs huge data sets. Is that what you mean? Neural networks made modern AI possible.

On the other hand, there is no other way to deal with massive data sets than by training a computer to try and make sense out of it. No human can possibly read all of it in a lifetime.

Yes to serve as a foundation for AI and machine learning as well.
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