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  • Welcome to the new site. Here's a thread about the update where you can post your feedback, ask questions or spot those nasty bugs!

Government shutdown.

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
I hope it is ok to discuss a non-photographic subject. I could ask that question in a politically oriented forum, but I am afraid that the answers would be too much tainted by the kind of political audience. This forum has several members from the US and I am simply seeking the opinion of people living there.

Government shutdowns are peculiar to the USA. The rest of the world, I think, sees these shutdowns with bewilderment. I still remember the first one I experienced in 2013 to find out that, indeed, the website from Nasa was shut down. Of course, there were earlier shutdowns, but I did not notice them as the world was less connected then.

The present shutdown breaks records in duration, with no end in sight. As far as I can understand what for me are foreign politics, democrats cannot give in on the border wall financing without losing face and a part of their electorate. On the other side, President Trump appears to be content to put the blame on Congress for as long as it takes.

I may be mistaken, but it appears to me that President Trump thinks that, the longer the shutdown, the more he wins. Please consider that the financing of the border wall was not a question asked to Congress as long as the majority was republican, but only arose when the majority changed. Therefore it appears, at least to me, that it is a political move to put the democrats in a dead end.

A further though is that, since President Reagan, republicans have consistently voiced the opinion that the economy needed less government and less civil servants. A shutdown achieves that purpose. President Trump reportedly boasted that the democrats let him achieve the reductions in public service that the republican electorate always wanted.

The problem here, and that is actually my question, is that I do not see any way out of the crisis. So, what is the opinion of people living in the USA? How is the crisis going to end?
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Jerome,

Donald Trump, to have any chance of being re-elected must keep his small but so far, reliably loyal base. They have been stirred up with a xenophobic animus that we white people don’t need to nurture other foreign folks kids and further reduce innate authority of whites. This is appealing to under-employed, less-educated males, who have been “left behind” in technology and ability to compete well in the evolving higher tech economy. This is aggravated by their need to compete with Hispanics. The latter are especially valued as on-time, reliable low cost, grateful, skilled workers. I am so familiar with factories full of Hispanics and maybe an occasional white guy released from jail so thankful to be given a new chance! Hispanics arrive at 7:00 am and leave at 3:00 and go home to monitor kids homework and eat supper with their large extended warm families. But they are Catholic! Not good enough I guess for Trumps electorate!

If Trump can keep the Evangelical “Christian” Right, (that of course excludes Pope-loving Catholics, LOL), by steadfastly appointing, (potentially anti abortion and anti LGBT) Supreme Court Judges, believing, (yes, he IS sent by God to put America back on a righteous path again to Christ and salvation), then he can garner enough votes next time to have a fighting chance of re-election, as enough Republicans vote by robot-driven motivations and will mostly be loyal.

To the Republicans, Trump has kept his most important promises on reducing taxes for the rich changing the balance of the Supreme Court for the next 30 years! His dalliances, lies, fiddles and connections with Russian interests are ignored as idiosyncratic failures of a truly human savor of America!

But for his fanatical base, those tax cuts have been obfuscated and the Supreme Court appointments are seen as a move against “Globalism”, (a “dog-whustle” for Jews Controlling The World”)! That is how his has stirred them up and supported their own built in paranoia against blacks, Jews, Hispanics and anyone of color.

So Trump can do ridiculous things and his base will support him. He has to try to the nth, as he promised to build the wall and implied Hilary was a traitor and he was going to “lock her up”!

Well his “base” totally believe that their arch-enemy and evil witch, Hilary Clinton, has to be arrested and locked up and even tried and executed for treason!

So Trump is forced to show his hard-wired fanatical followers that he is takeing the most extreme actions just for them. It is working, but only for his base. But that’s enough to allow him to at least enter the new election arena with a minimal chance of success.


It’s not so important exactly how this ends,
as long as he keeps his xenophobic base loyal.

Like DeGaulle disappointed the Algerians shouting “Algerie Francais!” so Trump will have to, in the end disappoint his zealots. But he wants to show them the lengths he’s willing to go for them.

Already, the Phialdelphia synagogue murderous attack showed that the “Q” believing factions doubt they can rely on Trump and the Q organization to deal with the enemies of the “Nation”. This is just a measure of how stoked up the White Nationalists have become.

We also had “Pizza Gate” were a right wing “hero”, armed to the teeth vigilante, actually believed the meme that Hilary’s people were running a pediophile ring luring innocent children to sex orgies within the Pizza restaurants! So he attacked! Amazing but true!

So this is a very dangerous game Trump plays.

For sure, he knows nothing of Kant, Satre, Locke, Berkeley, Hume or Robespierre!

He’s a smug narcissistic and rich-daddy-spoiled con artist who doesn’t pay his debts or respect his obligations.

Yes he has his street mobs to call on and the evangelicals, but that’s it!

I am just happy he doesn’t have Henry Ford and an influential Wagner estate with Army officers behind him and we have a free press!

Asher
 

Doug Kerr

Well-known member
Hi, Jerome,

First, by way of context, and I'm sure you are acquainted with this, a substantial fraction of the US-Mexico border is already provided with a "barrier" of some sort, the styles and resistance to various type of evasion varying greatly. In some places it is a low fence; in many places it is a barrier of closely-spaced steel posts, with a height of 15 feet or greater. It is seemingly a barrier of such closely-spaced posts that is preferred (over an opaque wall) by border officials.

Still, during President Trump's recent visit to a Border Patrol office near the border, an official described in detail how drug/human smugglers had tunneled under a section of that sort of barrier. (But they were apprehended.)​

And there are various programs now underway to enhance this network of physical barriers. One major program was initiated in 2009, but of course these projects are very complex, and do not move forward quickly, so no actual construction has begin under that project.

So it is an irony on one side of the battle that trump describes a wall (and I will use that term to cover the range of "serious" barrier designs) as if any such will only come into place though his work. And on the other side, sympathetic as I am to Speaker of the House Pelosi's position on the whole matter, it is a bit naïve to declare a "wall" as immoral, given that we have quite a bit of it now, much put in place under Democratic administrations.

But, to reply to your actual question: Here is what I think will happen:

• Within the next three days, President Trump will declare that a national emergency exists at the US border with Mexico, and directs the US military to begin construction of the needed fortifications to counter it, namely a wall along the entire border. Will that mean filling in the current gaps, and/or replacing existing barriers of moderate deterrence with ones of greater deterrence? It doesn't matter; it's not going to actually happen that way, anyway.

• Bills already passed by the House of Representatives to fully fund for the forthcoming fiscal year all federal departments except the Department of Homeland Security (under whose charter falls most aspects of border security), and funding Homeland Security for 30 days, which now lie before the Senate for consideration, will continue to lie there (at the direction of President Trump to Senate Majority Leader McConnell). Why? Because Trump, feeling that he had won the war by his preemptive move, will wish to punish what he sees as the losing side, the House of Representatives, or maybe the Democratic Party, or may mostly Speaker Pelosi. Thus the government "shutdown" will continue.

• Soon the pressure on members of the Senate from their constituents will be so great that they will, in ways that only Senators understand, force McConnell to bring those bills to the floor. The Senate will pass them and the will go to the President for signature. He will sign them, treating them as instruments of capitulation by a defeated enemy.

• Then the debate on the "border wall" will continue in the context of extending the funding of the Department of Homeland Security. Finally, a bill will be passed by both chambers allocating substantial funds for the improvement of border physical security measures. Trump, having tired of this game, will sign it.

The bottom line is that the ongoing programs of improvement to the security of the border, including via improvement physical barriers, will continue, perhaps now with a slightly greater sense of urgency.

******

Meanwhile, here in New Mexico, we have a new governor, a Democrat, succeeding the prior Republican governor. She is at present considering whether the members of the New Mexico National Guard (a reserve military force under control of the governor), earlier dispatched to the border at the "request" of President Trump to provide support against the emerging invasion by hordes of would-be immigrants, should be stood down and sent home. I suspect she will decide just that.

That's all we know here, 90 miles from the border.

Best regards,

Doug
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Doug,

I think it’s hilarious that they simply burrow under the wall. That’s the old fashioned sneaky way Monks got into nearby Nunneries or sappers went under the moats into castles!

To have an impenetratable wall is a huge challenge. The Israelis have to protect their international border with Gaza’s from attack tunnels by deploying arrays of sensors in the sky, patrols and deep subterranean counter-measures. Each “brilliant” insurmountable defense gives rise to some very surprising and relatively inexpensive countermeasure. Today it’s incendary and explosive carrying balloons! Much of the farmlands in adjacent Israel and precious forrests have been burnt to the ground!

The US border patrol has it so safe and easy! The poor of Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala are not armed terrorists with explosives and hostile intent to us! They bring no drugs!

They are wonderful folk, a resource to help our somewhat labor-starved economy.

We actually need them! That’s the paradox!

Asher
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
But, to reply to your actual question: Here is what I think will happen:

• Within the next three days, President Trump will declare that a national emergency exists at the US border with Mexico, and directs the US military to begin construction of the needed fortifications to counter it, namely a wall along the entire border. Will that mean filling in the current gaps, and/or replacing existing barriers of moderate deterrence with ones of greater deterrence? It doesn't matter; it's not going to actually happen that way, anyway.

• Bills already passed by the House of Representatives to fully fund for the forthcoming fiscal year all federal departments except the Department of Homeland Security (under whose charter falls most aspects of border security), and funding Homeland Security for 30 days, which now lie before the Senate for consideration, will continue to lie there (at the direction of President Trump to Senate Majority Leader McConnell). Why? Because Trump, feeling that he had won the war by his preemptive move, will wish to punish what he sees as the losing side, the House of Representatives, or maybe the Democratic Party, or may mostly Speaker Pelosi. Thus the government "shutdown" will continue.

• Soon the pressure on members of the Senate from their constituents will be so great that they will, in ways that only Senators understand, force McConnell to bring those bills to the floor. The Senate will pass them and the will go to the President for signature. He will sign them, treating them as instruments of capitulation by a defeated enemy.

• Then the debate on the "border wall" will continue in the context of extending the funding of the Department of Homeland Security. Finally, a bill will be passed by both chambers allocating substantial funds for the improvement of border physical security measures. Trump, having tired of this game, will sign it.


So, in a nutshell, you see the Senate as a possible way out of the dead end. Thank you for the explanation.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Jerome,

The government shut down is not the problem, just a minor manifestation of the problem. This is just a maccabre dance they have to go through.

It’s all simply positioning the parties for the 2020 election.

Yes, there is disruption, but no more than a bad snow storm that grounds all the airplanes!

There is no care for the loses to the Federal workers or garbage piling up in the National
Parks. The shut down is of little consequence to the players.

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
James,

In this particular disruption, there’s no plan or methodology to get the result you suggest. The folk will incur debts and have to decide between house payments and food! But they will get back pay and not lose their jobs in the end!

Cutting government agency bloat would be great, but this does nothing of the sort, unless you see some built in attrition that would be made permanent.

I haven’t heard anyonecsuggest that.

Asher
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
James,

In this particular disruption, there’s no plan or methodology to get the result you suggest. The folk will incur debts and have to decide between house payments and food! But they will get back pay and not lose their jobs in the end!

Cutting government agency bloat would be great, but this does nothing of the sort, unless you see some built in attrition that would be made permanent.

I haven’t heard anyonecsuggest that.

Asher

Asher

The U.S. Border Patrol first began to erect physical barriers in its San Diego sector in 1990. Fourteen miles of fencing were erected along the border of San Diego, California, and Tijuana, Mexico

The secure fence act came about in 2006 with amendments in 2007 so this wall building has been going on for a long while.

So I don't see this shutdown as just being about the wall. Trump needs a victory somehow?

Sure, we can empathize with families making tough financial decisions, and just like private citizens who have to find other work and bring competitive value every day.

Best, regards
James
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
But, to reply to your actual question: Here is what I think will happen:

• Within the next three days, President Trump will declare that a national emergency exists at the US border with Mexico

Apparently, this did not happen as soon as you thought. What is your current assessment of the future situation?

Edit: I found this in the mean time https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/25/politics/donald-trump-shutdown-border/index.html ... temporary end of the shutdown.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Trump didn’t get a victory. He was losing his base in the USS. I am pretty impressed however, that Canadians seem to be behind Trump 100%, except on trade, LOL!

Asher
 
Trump didn’t get a victory. He was losing his base in the USS. I am pretty impressed however, that Canadians seem to be behind Trump 100%, except on trade, LOL!

Asher

Approval ratings in January 2019 average about 40% for Trump and 35% for our PM Justin Trudeau. I don't know (m)any Canadians that approve of Trump. So what gives with you guys and gals south of the border!
icon7.gif

Trudeau, of course, hopes that by legalizing marijuana, Canadians at the next election will be too stoned to vote other that at the last election. How cool is that!
icon6.gif


It's interesting too, but unsurprising, that approval ratings for Theresa May are about 30%, with those for Macron hovering around 25%. She's for sovereignty and he's against sovereignty. And mighty Merkel's slipping downhill fast. Maybe Bob Dylan summarized the present way back in 1964: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7qQ6_RV4VQ
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
Maybe Bob Dylan summarized the present way back in 1964: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7qQ6_RV4VQ

Come gather around people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone
And if your breath to you is worth saving
Then you better start swimming or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changing


How prophetic, when new temperature records are beaten year after year.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Approval ratings in January 2019 average about 40% for Trump and 35% for our PM Justin Trudeau. I don't know (m)any Canadians that approve of Trump. So what gives with you guys and gals south of the border!
icon7.gif

Trudeau, of course, hopes that by legalizing marijuana, Canadians at the next election will be too stoned to vote other that at the last election. How cool is that!
icon6.gif

Look Trump is more popular in Canada than Trudeau. The other 60% are stoned on Marijuana. LOL!
We have enough problems with folk here propping up this delusional son of a rich man. We demand you tax Trump supporters at 85% for any money in holding companies!

Asher
 
Look Trump is more popular in Canada than Trudeau. The other 60% are stoned on Marijuana. LOL!
We have enough problems with folk here propping up this delusional son of a rich man. We demand you tax Trump supporters at 85% for any money in holding companies!

Asher

Not quite, Asher. The approval ratings cited are national: 45% for Trump in the USA; 35% for Trudeau in Canada, etc. I don’t know of any approval rating of Trump by Canadians, but I’d guess it would be less than 10%. On the other hand, liberal Americans probably approve of Trudeau if only cos he looks pretty. Cheers, Mike
 
Come gather around people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone
And if your breath to you is worth saving
Then you better start swimming or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changing


How prophetic, when new temperature records are beaten year after year.

Very true Jerome. Brought home yesterday by an early morning temperature - according to the gauge in my car - of -40 C, which is -40 on the F scale, too. A farmer friend predicted such lows because his cows grew unusually thick coats a month earlier than usual. Whether that exemplified foresight by the cattle or a response to a cold winter last year prompted enjoyable discussion.
Cheers, Mike
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Very true Jerome. Brought home yesterday by an early morning temperature - according to the gauge in my car - of -40 C, which is -40 on the F scale, too. A farmer friend predicted such lows because his cows grew unusually thick coats a month earlier than usual. Whether that exemplified foresight by the cattle or a response to a cold winter last year prompted enjoyable discussion.
Cheers, Mike

Mike,

That is so, so interesting and could generate a very important paper!

A tiny biopsy of the skin would allow assay of methylation and acetylation determination of the skin. Last year’s cold could have triggered such epigenetic changes. The latter can modulate gene expression according to “living conditions”! In fact, they probably know where to look in the cow chromosome. Discuss it with research colleagues at your University! I will do a search anyway!

Asher
 
Mike,

That is so, so interesting and could generate a very important paper!

A tiny biopsy of the skin would allow assay of methylation and acetylation determination of the skin. Last year’s cold could have triggered such epigenetic changes. The latter can modulate gene expression according to “living conditions”! In fact, they probably know where to look in the cow chromosome. Discuss it with research colleagues at your University! I will do a search anyway!

Asher

Ill do that Asher. My farmer friend also teaches in the Health Sciences Department of our university and has colleagues that work on genetic issues. Cheers, Mike
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
Approval ratings in January 2019 average about 40% for Trump and 35% for our PM Justin Trudeau. I don't know (m)any Canadians that approve of Trump. So what gives with you guys and gals south of the border!
icon7.gif

Trudeau, of course, hopes that by legalizing marijuana, Canadians at the next election will be too stoned to vote other that at the last election. How cool is that!
icon6.gif


It's interesting too, but unsurprising, that approval ratings for Theresa May are about 30%, with those for Macron hovering around 25%. She's for sovereignty and he's against sovereignty. And mighty Merkel's slipping downhill fast. Maybe Bob Dylan summarized the present way back in 1964: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7qQ6_RV4VQ

I think the majority of Canadians are weary of ideological hegemony and question Justin's capacity to solve real problems.

Best, regards
James
 
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