Doug Kerr
Well-known member
As the "process" leading to the nomination of someone to run for president of the United States, under the Republican Party banner, proceeds, it is easy to be seduced by the concept that the published scoreboards of "delegates won" show how the various contenders stand with regard to the chance of nomination. But they don't really.
The actual process
Recall that the actual nomination of the Republican candidate is done by floor vote at the Republican National Convention. Many of us remember exciting Republican (and Democratic) national conventions, with extreme drama as the various contenders jockeyed in real time for votes from the delegates.
In modern times we have not seen such. Instead, by the time the convention is weeks away, one contender's "position" is so strong - perhaps all the other serious contenders have even "conceded" - that the floor vote is just a formality. We can recall the Democratic party process in 2008, when Hillary Clinton essentially withdrew in favor of Barack Obama (this happened when the Texas Democratic Party state convention was in process, dealing with the matter of which delegates - supporters of Clinton or Obama - to send to the national convention).
Which of these scenarios will pertain to the Republican nomination in 2012 is hard to predict.
The "delegate scoreboard"
Back to the matter of the "scoreboard" of number of delegates "won" for the different contenders. Those "scores" count many different things.
For some states (especially those using a "caucus" system), the contender receiving the most votes statewide is reckoned in these scoreboards as having "gained" all the delegates allocated to that state. But in fact in most cases, the result of the caucus polling merely served to express the inclinations of the participating voters; the actual selection of delegates (as people) is done by a layered process culminating in the state Republican Party convention.
Then, those delegates chosen may have different circumstances in different states. Some are "bound" (or "pledged") to a particular contender; that is, formally obligated (by the state Republican party rules) to vote for that contender on the first floor vote (but perhaps not beyond).
But note, just to push the concept to its limit, in fact there is nothing "illegal" about such a delegate voting for some other contender in the first floor vote (no state or federal laws govern the operation of the convention). Doing such might cause the sponsoring state Republican party to petition to have the voting privileges of the delegate (at the national convention) revoked by the convention's Credentials Committee, with uncertain result.
Now, to take a less dramatic viewpoint, note that in many of the states, the delegates chosen by the primary elections are not formally bound to any contender (under the state's Republican party rules). They may have "expressed a preference", but that's it. So for contender X in state A, a certain number of the delegates actual chosen in the primary process, or that will emerge from the entire state process, are "favorably disposed" to that contender - period.
And there are various in-between situations.
So when we read that at a certain time "contender X has 512 delegates and contender y has 356 delegates", that does not in any way mean that these contenders are assured of that many votes, even on the first ballot, in the floor voting at the Republican National Convention.
Best regards,
Doug
The actual process
Recall that the actual nomination of the Republican candidate is done by floor vote at the Republican National Convention. Many of us remember exciting Republican (and Democratic) national conventions, with extreme drama as the various contenders jockeyed in real time for votes from the delegates.
In modern times we have not seen such. Instead, by the time the convention is weeks away, one contender's "position" is so strong - perhaps all the other serious contenders have even "conceded" - that the floor vote is just a formality. We can recall the Democratic party process in 2008, when Hillary Clinton essentially withdrew in favor of Barack Obama (this happened when the Texas Democratic Party state convention was in process, dealing with the matter of which delegates - supporters of Clinton or Obama - to send to the national convention).
Which of these scenarios will pertain to the Republican nomination in 2012 is hard to predict.
The "delegate scoreboard"
Back to the matter of the "scoreboard" of number of delegates "won" for the different contenders. Those "scores" count many different things.
For some states (especially those using a "caucus" system), the contender receiving the most votes statewide is reckoned in these scoreboards as having "gained" all the delegates allocated to that state. But in fact in most cases, the result of the caucus polling merely served to express the inclinations of the participating voters; the actual selection of delegates (as people) is done by a layered process culminating in the state Republican Party convention.
Then, those delegates chosen may have different circumstances in different states. Some are "bound" (or "pledged") to a particular contender; that is, formally obligated (by the state Republican party rules) to vote for that contender on the first floor vote (but perhaps not beyond).
But note, just to push the concept to its limit, in fact there is nothing "illegal" about such a delegate voting for some other contender in the first floor vote (no state or federal laws govern the operation of the convention). Doing such might cause the sponsoring state Republican party to petition to have the voting privileges of the delegate (at the national convention) revoked by the convention's Credentials Committee, with uncertain result.
Now, to take a less dramatic viewpoint, note that in many of the states, the delegates chosen by the primary elections are not formally bound to any contender (under the state's Republican party rules). They may have "expressed a preference", but that's it. So for contender X in state A, a certain number of the delegates actual chosen in the primary process, or that will emerge from the entire state process, are "favorably disposed" to that contender - period.
And there are various in-between situations.
So when we read that at a certain time "contender X has 512 delegates and contender y has 356 delegates", that does not in any way mean that these contenders are assured of that many votes, even on the first ballot, in the floor voting at the Republican National Convention.
Best regards,
Doug